Becoming and Being R1
Enrollment Changes That Made the Difference
Chris Rios, Associate Dean
Becoming R1: The Road Thus Far
In his introductory essay, Dean Lyon noted how Baylor’s recognition as an R1 university came three years earlier than expected and how this recognition was based on definable metrics. This observation leads to a simple question: what happened? From an enrollment perspective, two things happened: (1) We attracted more and better prepared students into our research doctoral programs, then (2) we did a better job helping them graduate. How exactly did that happen?
Carnegie rankings occur on a three-year cycle. Doctoral graduates (one of the four key metrics) are counted in a single year. The 2021 rankings were based on graduates in the 2019-2020 academic year. Since students graduating during this time entered Baylor between 5 and 8 years prior (our mode time to degree is around 6 years), we need to look at what was happening between 2011 and 2014. When we do, we find that these years saw a sharp rise in two key metrics. First was the number of incoming students. Between last year’s rankings (when we became R1) and those released in 2018 (when we were R2), the average cohort for students in their graduation years rose 14%. In other words, the growth in admissions meant more potential graduates for the 2021 ranking than 2018. Second was a rise in our retention and graduation rates, which saw a 6.5% increase between the two reporting years. Individually these are modest gains, unlikely to move the needle very much. Together they resulted in a 25% increase PhD graduates. When we take all research degrees into account (PsyD, EdD, DMA, and DScs), we find a total increase of 46%. Put simply, we achieved R1 in part because we attracted more students and helped them graduate at a higher rate.
| Changes Between Reporting Years | 2018 | 2021 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average On-Campus Research Doctoral Cohort Size | 98 | 112 | 14% |
| Doctoral Graduation Rates | 61% | 65% | 6.5% |
| PhD Graduates | 76 | 95 | 25% |
| Total Research Doctoral Graduates | 110 | 159 | 45% |
Being R1: The Years to Come
That such minor changes moved Baylor across the R1 line speaks to just how close we were in the prior years. Baylor was a very strong R2 university. But if such small changes could move us ahead, it is reasonable to ask whether Baylor’s R1 status is secure. When it comes to doctoral graduates, the answer is almost certainly yes. Our incoming numbers have continued to grow and have done so exponentially. The students who will count for the next set of rankings are already on campus. (In fact, they are graduating this year.) Their cohorts grew by 17%. The most recent average, which includes the first three years of our strategic growth plan, rose 53%. Thus, we have more students and more potential graduates. But that is only part of the story.
For many years our overall doctoral graduation rate (~65%) has exceeded the national average (~55%). This is good, but the national average is a low bar. Students at top research universities graduate at significantly higher rates. In 2019, we announced a goal of reaching 80%—a goal that has seemed stubbornly elusive. Only once (2017) has Baylor’s overall ten-year graduation rate exceeded 70%. It has more reliably been where it is today: 66%. But if we look at more recent years, we find at least three hopeful signs.
(1) Our 10-year average is improving. The rate for the five most recent years is 68%, two points better than the overall number. In other words, students who entered between 2008 and 2012 were more likely to graduate than those who came before. (2) If we track the cohorts who entered between 2010 and 2015, we find that these students are already graduating at or above our traditional averages. They accomplished or exceeded in seven, eight, and nine years what previous cohorts achieved in ten. (3) If we look at these same years and take only the most recent three-year average, we find that all exceed 70%—a milestone in our goal to reach 80%.
| 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| On-Campus Research Doctorate Graduates | 113 | 104 | 124 |
In general, these numbers indicate that the recent cohorts have been more successful in completing their degrees than those who came before. This should not be surprising. The Baylor of 2015 was significantly different than the Baylor of 2005. As our research reputation grew, we attracted students better prepared for the rigors of a PhD education. Once they arrived on campus, they found a faculty better prepared to teach, train, and mentor them. More immediately, these numbers mean that over the next four years we will only see our graduation rates rise. The numbers are in the books. These former students already graduated at a higher rate and in faster time than previous years. (In fact, for the first time a cohort (2013) has already exceeded an 80% graduation rate.) These graduates will count the next time the rankings are measured.
Is Baylor’s R1 status secure? It seems so. Baylor is a young R1 with much to accomplish if we want to become a normative R1. But our most aggressive plans and impressive gains are so recent that they have not been counted. And we haven’t even mentioned our largest research degree, the EdD in Learning and Organizational Change, which graduated its first cohort in summer 2021 (two years after the Carnegie measurement!) and now awards well over a hundred degrees a year. Whatever surprises may come in the next reporting year, there will not be a decline in the number of doctoral degrees awarded.
Where from here?
As Dean Lyon mentioned, the next stage in Baylor’s path towards becoming a preeminent Christian research university is not a simple matter of quantity. We will continue to grow, particularly in the STEM and health-related fields. We have not yet achieved full enrollment in the recently launched PhD programs in Anthropology, Communication Sciences, and Public Health. And we have ambitious plans in Materials Sciences. Yet more than quantitative growth in our PhD programs, we need to enroll, retain, and mentor the best students we can, those most likely to succeed. To that end, we have several goals.
- Continue growing stipends to better compete against other private R1 universities.
- Continue increasing our on-campus diversity.
- Help raise the graduation rates for all programs, especially our largest, to 80%.
- Increase awareness about Baylor among national organizations that promote and prepare underrepresented students for doctoral education.
Baylor’s recent gains have been impressive. Those on the horizon will be more so. And though nothing is certain, the gears are in motion to establish the Baylor of 2030 (three Carnegie classification cycles from now) as a strong and increasingly normative R1 institution—and just maybe a preeminent Christian research university.